My Forecasting Challenge

Did you miss me? I missed you too. I am sick at home. My back hurts badly and I can barely move. So it is time for a blog post.

One line of thinking I am contemplating is the whole idea of forecasting. The biggest challenge I see in forecasting – especially if there is historical data – is separating what one hopes for from what the data is actually telling. I have seen all sorts of smart people fall into this trap. They want to keep the target the same or higher because this is what they hope to achieve and not what they actually can achieve.

Add to this the idea of not engineering your success. If you shoot too low, you leave some success on the table.

But also if you shoot too high, and you miss over and over, the goal loses its purpose, motivation plummets, and you end up in a worse position. I have also seen this happening.

I don’t know where is the balance. I also don’t know how to convince people otherwise. It is challenging especially with people in leadership positions who don’t want to appear wrong. And it is challenging when you don’t want to be the naysayer. It is a dilemma. And I don’t have a solution. Because the answer is always like all life questions “it depends”.

Side note: One of the ideas I learned from reading “Superforecasting” is keeping a record of one’s forecasts and comparing them to the actuals. I mostly remember when I am right, but rarely when I am wrong. I want to keep a record of both my right and wrong forecasts. And I want to do it for others around me. May sound crazy, but if you read the book you will understand how great this is.